Dear Reader
Welcome to the November edition this is the last for the year Whanganui and Partners wish you and your family a safe and wonderful festive season. A reminder please use the highlighted red areas to navigate to different sections of the newsletter and use the links ” (Top)” to get back to the top of this newsletter.
Treasury reports steady business growth nationally which is underpinned by population growth and low inflation but growth is still expected to be below budget expectations.
Our trafficlight system gives a snapshot of the current economy. In November the trend still remains stable with indications of growth still the dominant factor this will hopefully translate into a bumper holiday period for all.
Continued improvement in house sales volumes as well sales of new vehicles trending upward and growth recorded in October, buildingconsents have remained steady. Electronic Card sales were buoyant showing a positive trend very similar to September. The number of bed nights continues to underpin the positive tourism results which have recorded the second best growth for New Zealand over the same month in 2014. And year on year a very impressive 22% improvement recorded.
We support the Whanganui Chamber of Commerce and urge you to join the Chamber if you have not yet done so. You will soon find out that the cost of joining is neutralised by all of the benefits you receive over the year. A strong Chamber means a strong voice for business in itself a good reason to join. Please contact them at admin@whanganuichamber.net.nz if you would like to become a member, the past year has been great with many functions and opportunities to network – congratulations on the great events Raewyn and team.
Free seminars on offer by the IRD are a great way to understand IRD business obligations if you know anyone who would benefit from these please pass this on as there is plenty of room for more to attend.
We are inviting tenders from suitably experienced contractors for the cleaning of the main council building, 179 St Hill St and various Library premises.
If you are interested in more detail or would like a copy of this newsletter as a PDF file or any suggestions/additions please let me know. Please remember to join us on our Whanganui and Partners Facebook page to keep up with what is happening on a regular basis we like to be liked as well!
Chris Heywood
New Zealand Economy
- Expectations of steady business activity and higher dairy prices point to the near-term growth outlook stabilising, but still weaker than in the Budget Update.
- Inflation remains low despite some support from higher tradables inflation as a result of the fall in the New Zealand dollar.
- Strong population growth continues to boost housing demand, with some spill-over beyond Auckland.
- A weaker outlook for global growth, particularly for emerging economies, continues to present a risk to the New Zealand economy.
Economic data released in October point to a stabilisation in the outlook, with growth in the second half of 2015 expected to return to around trend, but still weaker than forecast in the Budget Update. As indicated in the September Monthly Economic Indicators, given low growth in the first half of the year, growth of around 0.6% a quarter in the second half of 2015 means that growth in the December quarter 2015 from a year ago may fall below 2%, lower than the Budget Update forecast of 3.0%.
Read the full report here….
 
source: Treasury
NZ House sales (Top)
Auckland Pauses, Regional Markets Strengthen
• 7,838 dwellings sold in New Zealand in October 2015, up 18.6% on October 2014 and down 4.1% on last month (September)
• National median price of $460,000, up $30,000 (+7.0%) on October 2014 and down 5.1% on last month (September)
• A new record national median price excluding Auckland of $370,000, (+8.4%) compared to October 2014 and up 1.4% on last month (September)
• New record median prices also for Northland, Manawatu/Wanganui, Wellington and Nelson/Marlborough
• A rise of $107,750 (+16.8%) in Auckland’s median price from October 2014 to October 2015 ( $640,500 to $748,250), and a fall of $22,500 (-3.0%) compared to last month (September)
• A 57% rise nationwide in the number of sales over $1 million between October 2014 and October 2015 — from 511 to 804
• 22,000 dwellings sold by auction in the 12 months to October 2015, an increase of 47% in the number sold by auction in the 12 months to October 2014.
REINZ, announced today that nationwide there were 7,838 dwelling sales during October 2015, up 18.6% on October 2014 and down 4.1% compared to the previous month, September. Excluding Auckland, the number of sales increased 27.5% compared to October 2014, and rose 5.5% on the previous month, September.
Read the Full report here…
source REINZ
NZ Retail Card Spend (Top)
Retail card sales for New Zealand have shown improved growth yet again for the same period last year the only exceptions being apparel and appliances. Fuel sales still recorded a negative growth which should be seen as a positive trend as petrol prices have plummeted to their lowest levels in a long time.
Top Categories were takeaways, food retailing and bars cafes and restaurants.
Source Marketview
NZ New Vehicle Sales (Top)
New Vehicle sales in New Zealand have continued to grow and in recent months the 12 month moving average growth has increased at from 0.5% back up to 0.8%. In October 2014 a total of 8 190 new cars were sold and in October 2015 the figure was 9 654.The new car market has remained strong for the month.
Source MIA
Local Economy
Based on all of the local indicators we monitor we are still seeing positive signs for most of these in the Whanganui economy which should be good for trade over the festive season.
Whanganui and Region House sales (Top)
Sales volumes rose 19% compared to October 2014, with sales rising 38% in Manawatu Country, 32% in Palmerston North and 25% in Levin. Compared to September sales volumes increased 2%, with sales rising 48% in Manawatu Country, 4% in Palmerston North and 2% in Whanganui, but falling across the rest of the region. The median price across the region rose $13,500 (+6%) compared to October 2014 to reach a new record high. Prices rose 5% in Levin and Whanganui, but fell across the rest of the region. Compared to September the median price rose $10,000 (+4%), with prices rising 4% in Wanganui, but falling across the rest of the region.
The number of days to sell improved by seven days compared to September, from 38 days in September to 31 days in October. Compared to October 2014 the number of days to sell improved by 11 days. Over the past 10 years the median number of days to sell across the Manawatu/Whanganui region in October has averaged 42 days. It was noted that noted that, “First home buyers are very active at the lower end of the market, with a noticeable ‘trading up’ trend emerging across the region. The increase in demand and lack of listings at the lower end of the market is creating problems for buyers and a sellers market is emerging.”
Graph Commentary The median price trend is now easing, with the volume trend continuing to rise. The days to sell trend is now also rising. The overall trend for the region is now improving.
Source MREINZ
Whanganui Card Spend(Top)
The retail card spend in Whanganui was once again positive. The top 3 categories are once again the same as the previous month. Wanganui was the 2nd top performing region yet again second only to Ruapehu which comes off a low base.
Overall the electronic card data is still positive.
Top 3 sectors were
- Bars cafes and restaurants
- Hardware and Homeware
- Takeaways
The bottom three sectors were
- Fuel (Lower pump prices- which in efect is a positive)
- Apparel (flat and affected by changed market dynamics)
- Furniture and Flooring (off a low base)
Card spend comparison by region monthly growth over previous year
Source Market View
Card spend comparison by region month growth over previous year
The results for TLA’s across the region were mixed this month, with strongest Ruapehu again at 7.3% increase ahead of Whanganui which recorded a growth of 2.9% and Palmerston North at 2.0% increase. Tararua District declined at -0.6%. Wanganui once again increased at a higher rate than the National growth of 2.4%.
Source Market View
Whanganui New Vehicle Sales (Top)
October was a good month for new car sales with 70 new vehicles sold against 42 in the same month of the previous year the effect has been very positive resulting in a 4 % increase on the 12 month moving average which once again has turned upwards. New vehicle sales have proven very unpredictable but on the long term positive growth has outweighed the negative spikes.
Source MIA
Building Consents – Whanganui (Top)
In October there were 51 Building Consent applications . Based on a 12 month moving average we have yet again seen slight improvement.
Source Wanganui District Council
Tourism (Top)
Source-Stats NZ
A great result for our visitor industry yet again with Whanganui recording the highest growth in North Island visitor nights for September again the same month last year at 13.8 % Whanganuii recoarded the second highest growth in New Zealand.
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