New Zealand Economy

(Top)
Executive Summary
This month the Treasury has not given an update but the ANZ have published the results of their confidence survey which offers a very good account of what is happening on the National front. On the whole still a very positive picture.

• Firms’ own activity expectations lifted from +29 to +32. The historical average is +27. That’s an economy with some backbone. Construction is lord commander and even agriculture popped into the black.
• Profit expectations nudged up from +13 to +16. The master of coin should be happy.
• Employment intentions eased from +16 to +13.
• Investment intentions were unchanged at +11.
• Export intentions were a tad higher (+22 versus +21).
• Residential investment intentions were unchanged at +36; housing in general sits on the economic throne. Commercial construction intentions eased from +30 to +24.
• Inflation is contained. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 1.4% and pricing intentions hardly moved (+17).
• The picture, after adjusting for seasonality, is largely the same.

Read the full report here….
source: ANZ Bank

NZ House sales (Top)

• House price records smashed across New Zealand as ‘Halo Effect’ grows .
• Chronic lack of supply fuels regional growth in house prices and sales volumes
• Sales volumes hit new levels and median house prices reached new record highs across more regions of New Zealand than ever before, according to the latest figures released today by REINZ, source of the most recent, complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.
• Record median prices were reached in Waikato/Bay of Plenty, Taranaki, Canterbury/Westland and Otago. This shows the growing ‘Halo Effect’ of rising prices around New Zealand is strengthening in the regions where it is already present, and moving on to new regions, driven by a chronic lack of supply.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis the number of dwellings sold in April 2016 rose by 12.8% compared to March, indicating that the normally-expected drop in sales between March and April was far smaller than usual. And compared to April 2015, all regions recorded increases in sales volume.
• At the same time, the availability of properties for sale has fallen by over one third over the past 12 months, with a number of regions seeing declines of more than half. Days to sell, another measure of demand has also fallen by more than 20% over the past 12 months in nine of the twelve regions.
• The national median price was $490,000 for April, an increase of $35,000 (7.7%) on April 2015, and down 1.0% compared to March. Excluding the impact of the Auckland region, the national median price rose $29,000 to $382,000 compared to April 2015.

“Anecdotal evidence suggests that investors outside of Auckland are increasingly looking to real estate investments to improve their yields compared to bank deposits. First home buyers are also taking advantage of low mortgage rates, putting pressure on the number of properties available for sale. ” (REINZ) Chief Executive Colleen Milne

Read the Full report here…
source REINZ

NZ Retail Card Spend (Top)
April was a positive month for retail card sales with increases in all sectors except Apparel and Fuel. The decrease in fuel sales is indication of lower pump prices which we have all experienced over an extended period we predict this trend is changing as oil prices reach more realistic levels which we are already noticing . Fuel sales have remained in negative territory for an extended period which continues to significantly contribute to the current lower inflation rates we have been experiencing.
Top Categories were takeaways, bars cafes and restaurants and accommodation which is a consistent trend.

Source Marketview

NZ New Vehicle Sales (Top)
New Vehicle sales in New Zealand have continued to grow and in recent months the 12 month moving average growth has however continued to increased at a slower rate. In April 2015 a total of 6 150 new cars were sold and in April 2016 the figure was once again up to 6 790 a small increase of 0.4% on the twelve month moving average.  April has been a good month contributing to an improvement in the 12 monthly outlook .

Source MIA

Local Economy

House sales have once again lead the way in the local economy with yet again good sales volumes recorded in April with median prices still subdued .

Whanganui and Region House sales (Top)
Sales volumes rose 35% compared to April 2015, with sales rising 113% in Manawatu Country, 89% in Wanganui and 28% in Levin. Compared to March sales volumes fell 6%, with sales rising 40% in Manawatu Country, 10% in Feilding and 1% in Wanganui. On a seasonally adjusted basis sales across the region rose 40%, indicating that the drop in sales in April was far lower than normal.
The median price across the region rose $17,000 (+8%) compared to April 2015 with prices rising 27% in Levin, 13% in Palmerston North and 10% in Manawatu Country. Compared to March the median price rose $6,000 (+3%), with prices rising 18% in Levin, 6% in Palmerston North and 1% in Feilding.
The number of days to sell eased by six days in April, from 29 days in March to 35 days in April. The number of days to sell improved by 18 days compared to April 2015. Over the past 10 years the average number of days to sell during April for the region has been 47 days.
REINZ Chief Executive, Colleen Milne noted that, “First home buyers and investors are very active in the region, with the number of properties available shrinking rapidly. Investors are being attracted by low interest rates both on deposits and borrowing, while properties attractive to first home buyers are in short supply. Over the past 12 months the level of available properties for sale has fallen by 50%.”
Graph Commentary The median price trend is now easing, with the volume trend continuing to rise. The days to sell trend is now also rising. The overall trend for the region is now improving.

  

Source MREINZ

Whanganui Card Spend(Top)
The top category this month was Hardware and Homeware at 14.7% over the same 12 month period of last year with Bars cafes and restaurants still showing continued growth at 11.6 % over  the same period last year.

Top 3 sectors were

1. Hardware and Homeware 14.7%
2. Bars cafes and restaurants 11.6%
3. Appliances 8.7%

The bottom three sectors were

1. Apparel (-7%)
2. Fuel (-5.6%)
3. Furniture and Flooring(1.5%)

The accommodation figure has been unreliable as a measure as these figures do no include all methods of payment – such as online and bank transfers so tends to be erratic when looking at the accommodation figure.

Source Market View
Card spend comparison by region month growth over previous year

 

Card spend comparison by region monthly growth over previous year dollar value of goods purchased April 2016 shows that Wanganui has tracked consistently in the 3% range over the last 6 months.

Source Market View
Whanganui had better year on year electronic card sales than most of the TLA’s in the Manawatu Whanganui Region and still above the New Zealand Spend by 0.33%

Whanganui New Vehicle Sales (Top)
In April 2016 new vehicle sales were up on the previous year again with 59 new vehicles sold as opposed to 52 sold in the previous year retaining the moving average growth in the 2% range there are large fluctuations in sales from month to month but the overall trend is still in positive territory.

 

Source MIA

Building Consents – Whanganui (Top)

In April 2016 there were 87 Building Consent applications. Based on a 12 month moving average we have again seen a slight improvement in number of consents passed with the value of consents down as we move into winter and more low value consent applications processed the long term trend remains at an average of $ 5million per month on average.

Source Whanganui District Council

Source-Stats NZ