New Zealand Economy

(Top)
Economic data released in October continued to point to faster GDP growth in the second half of 2016 than forecast in the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update. The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed a strong expansion in business activity in the September quarter and a lift in business confidence, driven by the construction and tourism industries. Demand in the economy continues to be propelled by record net migration inflows, housing demand and tourist arrivals, while household retail spending was also solid. All told, data point to real GDP growth in the September quarter of around 0.8%.
Other indicators of activity remained positive, as key drivers of demand persisted. High consumer confidence is expected to support private consumption growth in the December quarter, and house price growth rebounded in September, following a fall in August, as the market adjusted to the Reserve Bank’s tightening of loan-to-value lending restrictions for investors nationwide. High house prices are expected to continue to support residential investment growth. A more positive outlook for real and nominal GDP than in the Budget Update forecasts supports a stronger outlook for the Government’s tax revenue over the year ahead.

• A solid lift in business activity and business confidence continues to point to stronger GDP growth in the second half of 2016 than forecast in the Budget Update.
• Demand in the economy is driven by elevated net migration inflows, housing demand and tourism spending. The export price recovery is expected to continue.
• Annual inflation remained weak in the September quarter, owing to low petrol prices and a reduction in vehicle levies. However, inflation is expected to rise from here.
• International data were mixed but generally positive and expectations of US monetary tightening increased.

Read the full report here….
source: Treasury

NZ House sales (Top)
Auckland leads price rises as volumes continue to fall

Despite a nationwide drop in sales volumes,

• Auckland is one of four regions to hit record high median sale prices in October, while the national median price eased by $5,000 to $510,000, according to the latest figures released today by REINZ, source of the most recent, complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.
• Auckland’s median house price has risen 16% year-on-year to $868,000 -lifting $119,750 over the year.
• This rise also represents a 5% increase on September 2016, and a seasonally adjusted 4% on September (up 17% year-on-year).
• Three other regions posted record median sale prices in October with Northland reaching $399,000, Waikato/Bay of Plenty lifting to $460,750 and Southland equalling its record high of $225,000 reached in January 2008.
• At the same time, the national median price was $510,000, up 10.9% year-on-year, although down slightly (1%) on the record $515,000 in September 2016.
• All of this occurred in spite of a nationwide drop in sales volumes. The number of sales for October 2016 was 6,727, a fall of 9% on September. Compared to October 2015, sales volumes nationally fell 14% with Auckland experiencing a 16% drop and Waikato/Bay of Plenty seeing a 25% decrease.

Read the Full report here…
source REINZ

NZ Retail Card Spend (Top)
Retail growth has remained steady in September with growth across most of the sectors monitored. The sectors which are still under pressure are furniture and flooring and apparel which were still marginal down on the previous year. Fuel sales values were also down but this is due to a weaker oil price rather then lack of demand which is helping keep inflation at low levels.
Top Categories were takeaways, accommodation bars cafes & restaurants and accommodation which is a consistent trend reflecting the strength of the national tourism sector.

Source Marketview

NZ New Vehicle Sales (Top)
New Vehicle sales in New Zealand have continued strong and in positive trritory of 1.2% growth for the In October 2015 a total of 8 910 new cars were sold and in September  2016 the figure was up to 10 795 again a good increase of 23%.

Source MIA

Local Economy

House sales have continued to lead the way with 45 % increase in sales over the previous month recorded once again the local indicators we monitor are still showing positive growth which is good for our economy we have also seen an increase in building consents as the housing stock comes under pressure. New car sales stalled in October with 33% less vehicles sold this is off a low base and still trending positive over the longer term.

Whanganui and Region House sales (Top)

• Sales volumes rose 23% compared to October 2015,
• with sales rising 45% in Wanganui, 43% in Levin and 11% in Palmerston North.
• Compared to September sales volumes rose 1%, with sales rising 16% in Manawatu Country, 8% in Palmerston North and 6% in Levin.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis sales across the region rose 5%, indicating that the rise in sales was larger than normal.
• The median price across the region rose $12,250 (+5%) compared to October 2015. Prices rose 30% in Manawatu Country, 24% in Feilding and 22% in Levin. Compared to September the median price rose $5,650 (+2%), with prices rising 9% in Fielding and 3% in Palmerston North, but falling across the rest of the region.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis the median price fell 2% compared to September.
• The number of days to sell improved by one day in October, from 28 days in September to 27 days in October.
• The number of days to sell improved by four days compared to October 2015. Over the past 10 years the average number of days to sell during October for the region has been 42 days. There is currently 14 weeks of supply available across the region, a drop of 15 weeks over the past 12 months.
• REINZ Spokesman, Bryan Thomson noted that, “An emerging feature of the market has been the increase in the number of auctions, albeit off a low base, as the level of buyer interest has increased and the number of properties for sale has fallen. First home buyers continue to be active in the market although the number of investors has declined somewhat.”

Full report available here..
Source MREINZ

Whanganui Card Spend(Top)
The top category this month was once again Hardware and Homeware with Bars/Cafes and Restaurants back with department stores showing a positive growth .

Top 3 sectors were

1. Hardware and Homeware
2. Bars Cafes and Restaurants
3. Department Stores

The bottom three sectors were

1. Fuel (Lower pump prices- which in effect is a positive)
2. Accommodation
3. Apparel (flat and affected by changed market dynamics)

Source Market View
Card spend comparison by region month growth over previous year

Card spend comparison by region monthly growth over previous year dollar value of goods purchased September 2016.

Whanganui New Vehicle Sales (Top)
In October 2016 new vehicle sales were down on the previous year with 23 less new cars sold which is 33 % down on the previous year this large decrease with the negative growth experienced in November and December 2015 putting average growth under pressure at negative 2.7% for the month the trend however remains positive in spite of the poor sales in October and given the strong performance in the national sector there is still reason for optimism.

 

Source MIA

Building Consents – Whanganui (Top)

In October 2016 there were 65 Building Consent applications. Based on a 12 month moving average we have again seen an improvement in value of consents passed with strong growth indicating the individual values of projects in a growth phase.

Source Whanganui District Council